To dream the impossible dream, public transit in Irvine

On May 9, 2025, the Voice of OC, which describes itself as Orange County’s nonprofit newsroom, posted the following article by Mike Stockstill.

Improving public transportation here in Irvine is back in the news.

For decades, reducing reliance on the automobile has been an elusive quest in this community with a well-deserved reputation as the epitome of smart planning.

After implementing a free bus shuttle system in a portion of this very large city last year, the Irvine City Council last month voted to consider expanding the Irvine Connect footprint and operations, potentially spending millions of dollars from state transportation funding the city now receives, as well as possible allocations from the city general fund in the future.

The council action, on a 4-2 vote, brings back the question that has often been asked in this fifty-four year old city: why doesn’t Irvine have a comprehensive public transit system? (There were two votes. The first was unanimous to consider adding a new shuttle line along Portola Avenue; the second was the 4-2).

As described in my book on the history of how Irvine was planned and developed, William Pereira–whose firm wrote the original master plans for UC Irvine and the Irvine Ranch–wanted to make the New Town of Irvine an example of how careful attention to land use patterns, especially density, can promote mass transit.

In his plan for University Town Center, directly adjacent to UCI, Pereira promised that “this community will not be dominated by the automobile…they will be communities where women can stroll to shops.” Ray Watson, who worked with Pereira as an Irvine Company planner, eventually rising to become the company president, found it amusing that Pereira’s disdain for the auto came from a man who “…lived on a golf course in a single family house and had a chauffeur who drove him around in a Bentley.”

While created as a largely self-contained community, Irvine exists in the governmental and social ecosystem of Orange County, a place that given the choice between urban and suburban, has always selected the single family home with a yard over the high density condominium or apartment. And along with the home, OC residents chose the automobile.

The county didn’t even have its own bus system until 1972. The Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) grew with state and federal funding, but bus service did best in county cities with the highest density and levels of poverty. In outlying communities bus service was minimal and ridership low.

It is axiomatic that public transit systems across the United States almost never operate at a profit, and those that come closest are located in areas with very high density, as well as in geographically constrained areas; think the subway in New York, Washington DC and the Elevated line in Chicago. Also, these systems largely link to one or two centers chocked full of jobs. Here in Irvine, our job centers in the Irvine Business Complex and the Irvine Spectrum have never developed densities that could attract meaningful public transit. Moreover, the developers who built offices and commercial properties there recognized tenants wanted–demanded–adequate parking for autos because that’s what people renting from them used to reach the workplace.

In 2003, Irvine had a chance to bring public transit into the heart of the community when the OCTA was promoting the Center Line, a light rail system that would have connected central Orange County cities to John Wayne Airport and the Irvine Spectrum. Irvine voters rejected the plan; Center Line was never built. Bus service has continued in the county, but most recently ridership was badly hurt by the Covid epidemic.

The city staff report explaining plans to expand Irvine Connect has good news, bad news, and more than a few questions. For example, in its first year of operation the shuttle had 141,000 riders. Oddly, the report said that the highest ridership was on November 1, seven months after service began. But no stats on any recent ridership numbers–did ridership peak on November 1? Go up? Go down? Stay the same?

The maps showing potential additions of shuttle routes demonstrate how difficult it is to create a system serving all of this sprawling city. If fully implemented with the existing and expanded three routes, the eastern communities in the city where density is relatively high–Woodbury, Stonegate, Cypress Village and much of Oak Creek–have no service. Nor do the communities in the Great Park, Quail Hill or Turtle Rock. (The staff report proposed studying a link to the Great Park next year.)

To pay for a comprehensive shuttle system, the staff report noted the option of issuing a bond against future state revenues the city now receives to get a one-time infusion of $32 million. Interesting idea, but municipal bonds are typically used to construct projects, not to pay for operational needs. And given current market conditions, the appetite for tax-exempt bonds is less than stellar.

Councilman Michael Carroll loudly voted no on this plan and issued a press release further damning the concept. Expect to hear more from him.

Here’s my unsolicited advice to the city council majority on this issue. First, send it through normal channels to the city transportation commission at a minimum, and the finance and planning commissions as well. That’s why these commissions exist, to bring a variety of viewpoints and expertise to important subjects.

Finally, seek out the local experts: the UC Irvine Institute of Transportation Studies has 36 faculty members–most of them PhDs–who spend every day studying transportation in all its complex facets.

The Institute phone number is 949-824-5989. Considering the current uncertain future of federal funding for academia, I suspect the Institute might give the city a generous discount on a very comprehensive study of the viability and true price of the expanded shuttle proposal.

Michael Stockstill is the co-author of a book about the history of the planning and development of the Irvine Ranch. He is retired and has lived in Irvine since 1976.